100. the closing bell family just got a little larger. we want to extend our congratulations on the birth of their beautiful new baby girl named brielle. we can't wait to meet her in person. congratulations. that will do it for us today. thank you so much for being with me. i hope you follow me on twitter and google plus. don't go anywhere because fast money begins right now on cnbc. >> live from new york city's time square, i'm melissa lee. stocks battled back. a look at whether the market can keep its composure. apple taking their position less

than 24 hours before the iphone company releases its position. >> and the case for ibm even though the stock is under pressure. we're tackling the post game analysis set up for tomorrow. first let's get to big movers. that is shares of netflix. huge pop. now 25%. we are live from la with the latest on this. julia? >> reporter: 25% higher after hours and guided higher than expected. the company reported stronger than expected addition of 3 million streaming subscribers. guidance for the current quarter also beat projections, but the range is incredibly wide.

but perhaps most important, netflix's investment in original content seems to be paying off. house of cards had a high level of engagement, adding that it's able to target the right audience in a cost effective and efficient way. the second original series was viewed by more members globally in its first weekend than house of cards was.

>> i think they have another quarter of this and then i think if they continue to do this in the september and december quarters, i throw in the towel if i'm wrong. -- sequentially 16 million dollars. that is unsustainable. if i can notice that in the first half hour after the call, netflix is not paying enough of revenue to content owners. they are profiting by paying less for content that is not sustainable. explain to me how a company that loses $30 million a quarter is worth that. they can exploit the content. >> i understand the argument and perhaps at a faster clip.

isn't that a little bit deceptive? steve and pete may not have watched the whole first season of house of cards, but i have. that's another boost down the line. >> the am mortization is what drives it. the content guides will not take one third of revenues for content. the price of content is rising much faster. you will see it when the warner deal kicks in and the disney deal. i think these numbers are really quite deceptive. i think people are buying into the house of cards that has become ned flix. >> how about the idea of the potential international growth. obviously some of that coming

internationally. couldn't that be a huge catalyst in terms of growth? >> you called say that we're losing money internationally but we're making up for it in volume. no. they managed again to curtail their marketing or content spend. they said netflix is paying outrageous amounts and no traction internationally. if they're losing money, i don't think how growth benefits them at all. the guidance seems to be so wide you can drive a truck through it. is that what they do or should we be concerned? >> every penny is a million dollars operating profit. that's really not that much. the number that really is interesting is the domestic

subscriber edition numbers. i think the subs that they have got they will get more in the second kaur. people are accelerating and joining. i think these guys are set up for a huge problem in september. i think you will see sub growth down and that's when the stock gives up. >> great to have you with us. thanks for you time. we have seen double digit percent moves. i think we have tried to navigate this as well. we are all traders and this stock has been a tremendous trading story. he might wind up being right and there might come a time where you have got to short netflix

and look for the downside. now i don't think you can go out and buy netflix tomorrow to english a long position. tomorrow is a day to take a victory lap. >> does it make you more bullish on content? all the competition is in streaming and they are filling it with something. >> it's all about retention and some of that growth. if michael is right on his thesis that they are losing money on each subscriber, then this is a house of cards and it will eventually fall apart. this stock has been going higher

and higher and higher. a lot of people out there likely chasing this thing in the afterhours. i think looking as you would want to take off your positions and re-evaluate. >> that is what you are doing. >> if you would want to get out of netflix now this is just not a sustainable bounce. i can't imagine that it can hold that for more than a day or two. >> let's move on. we will keep you posted on the move in netflix. we saw a number of intraday reversals that were fascinating. we saw a nice turn around there. if you take a look at the oil holders we also saw a swing in

oil. >> that is one that is -- the transports were interesting. i have been on the sideline. it's given an opportunity to get long the name. so risk reward i think for the first time in months if not the last year but, to me the win thing that didn't fit was copper. >> maybe it's a technical

bounce. >> and goldman had a negative call on copper, too. now have to play this as a trading venue. i would take this bounce. i don't think it's going to have any legs in it whatsoever. >> we have a lot of earnings coming out in the next few days. we look at that rather than alcoa, it looks bearish. the may 21 homes. back to cat. the mining is the one thing that

the ceo talked about was construction. when you're looking at the weakness, obviously that's something that is. >> right. he has been -- are you talking about the interview this morning? i thought it was really interesting that he is a great ceo. and i think he a great job. but sometimes perception is reality. i didn't used to think that mattered but i do now. >> now they talked about the share repurchase. those are all reasons when that stock hit $80 a share it sure seemed as if somebody wanded in.

>> that was a very sharp tick higher. a couple percent gain. >> it did follow the market. there are hopes for recovery here. do you buy into it in are things looking better. >> and all the competitors in this field. i would say if you're going to be in this space, stay with haliburton. >> these bioteches have been on fire. well ahead of the conversation.

>> it's actually getting close to the buy side. another buck or two down. >> up 3%. >> one point is up over r5%. margins to me were a little stechy. i don't think tomorrow is the day to go piling into a long position. >> we have got a pop here for men's underwear. here is an some experts say it's a good sign for the economy claiming men might choose not to replace their boxers in leaner times. you had the whole commando theory. >> i'm a commando person on the weekend. >> i'm a very consistent shorts

wearing type of guy. >> i haven't bought new boxer shorts in -- >> i don't want to know. >> in like 85. >> before we head to break, let's take a check on some of the afterhours movers. up more than 1% in extended trading turned lower there. and another check on shares of netflix, soaring on earnings results. the gain is about 23.5%. so we'll keep a watch on that for you. a top analyst gives us his buy case for apple. and later on the dreaded triple top and why one trader believes it is here for the s&p 500. [ male announcer ] when gloria and her financial advisor made a retirement plan, they considered all her assets, even those held elsewhere, giving her the confidence to pursue all her goals.

when you want a financial advisor who sees the whole picture, turn to us. wells fargo advisors. who sees the whole picture, turn to us. at tyco integrated security, we consider ourselves business optihow?rs. by building custom security solutions that integrate video, access control, fire and intrusion protection. all backed up with world-class monitoring centers, thousands of qualified technicians, and a personal passion to help protect your business. when your business is optimized like that, there's no stopping you. we are tyco integrated security. and we are sharper.

>> >> we will be watching shares of apple when the company reports second quarter earnings. concerns have had investors running for the exit. shares down 44% from the all time high? let's take a position with top

ranked analyst of bs. >> you know the issue is that you can make the bull case up and down all day long from now until the sunsets and the bull case has been the bull case for months at this point. at what point do you think the stock reflects what the reality is. >> obviously if they announce a share repurchase tomorrow, it would help but chances are they may not do that. until we see them actually fire bac back. >> when you say firing back, new products? refresh?

the imac did bounce back in the quarter. a lot of people are opting for older product so it looks like we need to have something exciting. we need to have new services. hopefully we get some fingerprint technology. i think lit be new product which is more likely in the fall. >> where does the dividend go from here? is it factored in your mind? is that going be exhausting? >> looking at the options trading, it looks like people are factoring about a 10 to 15% increase in the dividend. as you were saying earlier it's really about momentum. the stock is cheap. it's really about what's going

to turn things around. >> steve, i have got a quick question for you. i think one of the biggest problems is they have not addressed what people really want. if you go back to his book he talks about i'll tell you what you want. they need a new product. the new product on the phone needs to be a larger format phone. do yo see that happening? >> i don't. they will have a phone. my guess is they got surprised by the interest in 5 and 6 inch phablets. it's going to be a while before they can respond to that if they do. >> let's say they have a cheaper phone on the market. isn't the market expecting that? so any pop in the stock will be

expected and sold off? what is going to get the stock moving, in your view? as an analyst, what is going to be the really innovative product that will keep investors holding on? >> it's hard to see in the short term. probably have a new ios7. i'm not sure that's enough. they have got to show the street that they are thinking of ways to monetize all of the credit cards on the street. >> factor fiction? tim cook is in danger of losing his job? er i think it's fiction. if we're sitting here in nine to 12 months and all the new products had bombed it might be

a new story. in terms of apple? >> i totally agree with him on tim cook. he is a terrible cash al kay tore. i'm long going in and out. i'm long and have been for a while. >> i have owned this stock for a long time. >> you can't really love a stock that is at 44%. >> well, i have owned it for a heck of a lot longer but i never got out of it. if they have missed the boat, and it doesn't launch soon? sometime within the next months,

then i think he has got a real problem. everybody who is foreign has the bigger screen phone. everybody. >> why does it take so long? they have the ipad mini. why does it take so long? why can't they work on that same platform? make it a phone and the people have to carry around one item in their pocket? why does it take so long to refresh when they have the product existing there? >> how many devices do you have in your man purse? >> seven right now. >> you are so honest. >> i have the underwear guys should be wearing in their man purse. >> carrying around guy's underwear. microsoft getting a pop today. and a should you be following these big activists?

>> yes. let's start with the microsoft story. i don't spisome is faes sr. -- interesting value situation. so it's going to be really hard for them to actually get something done. all that having been said, i think value act is an outstanding activist investor. which is in the restaurant and retail hotel space. i think that's a really interesting one. but other activists i would follow are interesting. and he takes big stakes and obviously he has enough money to make things happen.

the one thing i would watch out for is when carl files a g, not a d, that means he's pass if he has been very, very successful. if you followed him a lot of different names. that's what i like to look for but you have got to be patient. it can take a while. >> we talk about it but probably not enough. and ashlynn is a name. they report on wednesday.

valuations are still not that rich. so i think ash lynn is still sort of interesting given today's move. >> yeah. and due pont reports tomorrow. >> it teals like there is a little bit of power behind them. everyone reacted today. i expect by the reaction i saw that those will probably be very strong as well. >> coming up next is a triple talk brewing? we go off the charts to find out. and why gold may have hit bottom for now. check out texas instruments. we are on the earnings call for the latest developments. tune back in. we'll be right back.

lets you jump backwards and forwards in time to capture the perfect shot. blackberry z10 with time shift. built to keep you moving. see it in action at blackberry.com/z10

>> texas >> texas instruments first quarter call about to get underway. what can we expect from this call? >> a couple of things have come out from the release so far. one, the book to bill ratio is in at about 1.03 which augusters well for the neck quarter. customers are holding just enough inventory to get the tough built that they're building now. why they're confident and a bit of a break down by regions and industries. questions about autos and industries sure to come up.

>> it was a possiblenary joe guy addressed back in january. >> we said it would coincide with ten year rates going to 2%. they got close and we said it would coincide with the vix trading down to 12, which i believe we will get to. >> let's see what guy is thinking right now. >> we did. basically right around the 12 level. i happen to believe that the vix has found a bottom that is going to spike from here. it's going to trade up and

around. >> so we were around, you know, somewhere around here? >> yes. >> we actually got up to around 205. the vix had a ten year had a 165, 166 yield today. so if we remember, we talked about this at length. we had the move up into 2,000. and remember what happened from there. here we are again magically at the same level. granded it overshot a little more than i thought. what i'm telling you folks at home. but the s&p 500 is not staying here. we will push through 1600 and have that move a lot of people are talking about.

i think you have to really ask yourself do i want to be in the market in a meaning ffl way? >> so we are at a critical juncture. >> i believe that we are. there is no way we will come back a month from now and the s&p will be here. >> most people look for the reverse trend but if you look back you get burned with this. and it blew right through the last sale right around 24. i think the s&p is going lower but be careful. >> what does the options market say? >> with have seen con sis sently on the up days.

believe it or not, people were buying puts to protection themselves. if that continues to happen i think that's the reason why you have only seen four closes for the entire year. we pull right back down again. protection is in place and people are holding their breath but not willing to sell this market off the way you would sometimes expect. >> and our next trade here, gold. let's bring in the commodity king hils. >> so where do we go from here on gold? is the worst behind us? >> i suspect in dollar terms we may well have seen the lows last week. there is a very good probability

that the lows were scene. i'm absolutely convinced that we saw the lows in gold in those terms. and gold and yen has rallied almost 9% and it's within spitting distance of new all time highs. i prefer owning gold in terms of yen. but that makes most people very upsaid. it may well have seen its low. i think with failed a little bit. if we don't fall off then the lows last monday and tuesday were the lows for a long period of time. >> do i play this with the gold miners? no. no. >> go ahead. >> shouldn't things be improving? they're not hedged.

>> things will look up for the miners. it's the oldest story in the book of trading. why would you own the gold miners? and some of my best clients are the largest miners in the world. when you're betting on the miners you're betting on gold and their ability to produce it. you're betting on them not doing something silly. bet on gold and gld. and whatever you do avoid the jr. mine ours. >> in terms of copper, didn't get any love today. what is your take here. if you look at tin and alum numb

and zinc, they have all been moving from the upper left to the lower rilg on the chards. that's a phd in economics and that doesn't bode well for the economy. copper is telling us a story about slowing global economic growth. >> upper left to lower right equals down. >> for the dyslexic viewers among us, thanks. >> do you agree? gold over gdx? >> and the stocks don't lie. if you go back to the gdx when the s&p was significantly lower than what it is now and when the price of gold was probably 400 to $500 lower, gesds what? gold razz hallied probably the same amount. so again, specifically you can get into minors here and there.

the better play has always been gold. >> coming up next, why big blue slide may be your gain. her case for ibm and other compelling names in the space. and fashion trail blazer or victim? two traders take on michael kors in our street fight. i've always kept my eye on her... but with so much health care noise, i didn't always watch out for myself. with unitedhealthcare, i get personalized information and rewards for addressing my health risks. but she's still going to give me a heart attack. that's health in numbers. unitedhealthcare.

tens of thousands of dollars in hidden fees on their 401(k)s?! go to e-trade and roll over your old 401(k)s to a new e-trade retirement account. none of them charge annual fees and all of them offer low cost investments. e-trade. less for us. more for you.

>> >> welcome back to fast money. live at new york's times square. big pop in the afterhours session. all the over metrics there when it comes to domestic subs, international subs as well as dvdst. and pete, what may have many people nervous is netflix saw its best day in nearly three months. >> a lot of people were trying to decide whether or not something leaked. certainly the indications were we're looking for. >> 24%, the move at this hour. 6:00 is when the company holds

its conference call. the stock is down more than 10% since the report. should you give up hope on big blue? let's bring in kim, she has more than a billion dollars in assets under management. it's always great to speak with you. >> thanks for having me on. >> what i want to hear is how they will overcome the problem they have seen in china. they did go on for sometime during the call. i didn't feel like they had a real strong resolution. i think china and the emerging markets are key to the success. >> what is the problem in china and what percentage of revenues is china for ib? >> they don't really break it out. the bricks that emerging markets.

so, it's been on fire. but the problem is, what they have done is serve the banks of chi china. >> in this quarter, it seems like a lot of revenue have dried up. and i wonder if it's just a hand off between one political regime to the next. or if this is a more serious problem where china has somehow developed home grown technology. down 1%. in the americas, which is the biggest market, they were down 4%. >> it's pretty exciting to be an

analyst. storage seems to be playing strong. as we have seen with apple, even the consumer has pulled back. technology is always a lumpy spending area. there is clear winner sub segments and then some segments that just dry up all of the sudden. and we're going to get some more information this week. >> from 100 to about 210. a lot of people were shooting on valuation. they are clearly wrong. now this report might give them ammunition to make that argument again. with that said, what do you think the right multiple is for ibm? >> it's really hard. there are services, there is software and machinery. i will tell you.

>> services in software have been really strong on the margins. so i wouldn't be surprised if they mix it up. >> one of your major holdings are microsoft. are you concerned about what they may or may not do? >> that certainly seems to be occurring. >> thank you. >> kim forest of fort pit. still to come, best dressed stock. a look at whether the strong run is winding down in our street fight. ♪ [ laughter ] ♪

[ female announcer ] each one of us is our own boss. ♪ and no matter where you are in life, ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ at tyco integrated security, we consider ourselves business optimizers. how? by building custom security solutions that integrate video,

access control, fire and intrusion protection. all backed up with world-class monitoring centers, thousands of qualified technicians, and a personal passion to help protect your business. when your business is optimized like that, there's no stopping you. we are tyco integrated security. and we are sharper. it's lots of things. all waking up. ♪ becoming part of the global phenomenon we call the internet of everything. ♪ trees will talk to networks will talk to scientists about climate change. cars will talk to road sensors will talk to stoplights about traffic efficiency. the ambulance will talk to patient records will talk to doctors about saving lives. it's going to be amazing. and exciting. and maybe, most remarkably, not that far away.

the next big thing? we're going to wake the world up. ♪ and watch, with eyes wide, as it gets to work. ♪ cisco. tomorrow starts here. >> >> high fashion not generating big profits for this stock. shares off nearly 12% over the past few months. we are sizing in on michael kors. peter, brian? >> be careful. >> he is on the fast line.

total of 90 seconds. kick it off. >> this stock was trading over $64. i think it hit to $65 a share. i think the bears have got their opportunity to sell into this thing. >> you're the bear. surprise surprise. >> yes. surprise. 2015. come on. >> even in the short term. >> it's about investor perception. everybody is into china. everybody says they're into china.

the big picture is china is slowing. the head of the bank said they had to make short term sacrifices for long term stability. i think there is another problem. if people are looking past the margin compressions. they're going after coach's turf. they will be going after stores. and management has told you in the near term that margins are going to come down. >> and then the 2015 story is way out there. >> you look angry. >> give me a smile. >> weigh in. >> i can't be long in here. it's a great company.

>> these are all competitors here. >> if you're going to get long here. >> i'm going to say basically florida's expressions, i go with beakers. >> you're making the point that we should have shown the mug shot with that? >> it was great. i think it will work. tomorrow night it will work. >> ups, in the meantime to report. make his lips move.

ups to report first quarter earnings this thursday. some traders are betting that the stock will fall lower by week's end. what did you see? >> that's right. we saw a big put buying ups. last week ups dropped for the first time since november and remembering that horrible number out of fedex that you just mentioned. we saw a big buyer of the weekly puts. and the fact that that 82 half strike was slightly in the money. >> that made scott's mouth move. >> so real. >> good to see you. >> scott nations.

coming up next. stocks you may want to part with. hold them or fold them is up next. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ [ indistinct shouting ] [ male announcer ] time and sales data. split-second stats. [ indistinct shouting ] ♪ it's so close to the options floor... [ indistinct shouting, bell dinging ] ...you'll bust your brain box. ♪ all on thinkorswim from td ameritrade. ♪

but at xerox we've embraced a new role. working behind the scenes to provide companies with services... like helping hr departments manage benefits and pensions for over 11 million employees. reducing document costs by up to 30%... and processing $421 billion dollars in accounts payables each year. helping thousands of companies simplify how work gets done. how's that for an encore? with xerox, you're ready for real business.

>> >> sometimes you have to leave the losers and sell the winners. first up, simon property soaring to a record high. the largest owner of malls and fashion outlet centers in the world. shares have doubled in the past three years. karen, hold them or fold them. >> it has been extraordinary. the whole read space as everyone hunts for yield. fold them. >> next up, shares of pea body. >> you have got to get through the graphic. >> that was a good imitation. but i think the hold em guy is you. >> panda. >> concerns about falling gold prices. >> fold them. >> foal them. >> we reveal the winner of the street fight. plus your first move tomorrow. more fast straight ahead. i have low testosterone. there, i said it.

how did i know? well, i didn't really. see, i figured low testosterone would decrease my sex drive... but when i started losing energy and became moody... that's when i had an honest conversation with my doctor. we discussed all the symptoms... then he gave me some blood tests. showed it was low t. that's it. it was a number -- not just me. [ male announcer ] today, men with low t have androgel 1.62% (testosterone gel). the #1 prescribed topical testosterone replacement therapy, increases testosterone when used daily. women and children should avoid contact with application sites. discontinue androgel and call your doctor if you see unexpected signs of early puberty in a child, or signs in a woman, which may include changes in body hair or a large increase in acne, possibly due to accidental exposure. men with breast cancer

or who have or might have prostate cancer, and women who are or may become pregnant or are breastfeeding, should not use androgel. serious side effects include worsening of an enlarged prostate, possible increased risk of prostate cancer, lower sperm count, swelling of ankles, feet, or body, enlarged or painful breasts, problems breathing during sleep, and blood clots in the legs. tell your doctor about your medical conditions and medications, especially insulin, corticosteroids, or medicines to decrease blood clotting. so...what do men do when a number's too low? turn it up! [ male announcer ] in a clinical study, over 80% of treated men had their t levels restored to normal. talk to your doctor about all your symptoms. get the blood tests. change your number. turn it up. androgel 1.62%. made a retirement plan, they considered all her assets, even those held elsewhere, giving her the confidence to pursue all her goals. when you want a financial advisor who sees the whole picture, turn to us. wells fargo advisors.

>> somewhere >> somewhere out there brian kelly is smiling because he is the winner of our street fight on michael kors. all right, time for the final trade. >> like caterpillar.